Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
major breakthrough in the energy saving technologies from the international
community. Developed countries should transfer CCS and other major energy
technologies to China free of charge and commercialize CCS technology after
2030.
• Research shows that China's future economic and social development will
go through three historical phases: rapid growth of energy demand and carbon
emissions (from now until 2020), preliminary formation of a diversified energy
structure (2021-2035) and a critical stage of carbon dioxide emissions abate-
ment (2036-2050). In the second phase, the optimization of China's energy
consumption structure and a complete overhaul of the coal-dominated pattern
will also determine if China's demand for fossil fuels can reach its peak,
decouple economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions and make it possible
for China to shift its energy supply structure from the current “coal-dominated
energy structure” into a new pattern that comprises three categories: coal, oil and
natural gas, and non-fossil energies.
• If developed countries commit to making great strides to cut emissions,
developing countries might have some room for future development and
contribute to global emissions reduction. China will also play an important
contribution, but still face tremendous challenges. To meet a 450 ppm CO
2
concentration limit by 2050 requires a low-carbon energy system as soon as
possible, including extensive use of zero or negative emissions, such as renew-
able energy, carbon storage, geological storage technologies and more than a
90 % reduction or even negative emissions by 2050 among developed countries,
with other countries having no room to increase emissions. The study also shows
that if global CO
2
emissions from energy activities follow the path of China's
low-carbon scenario during the years spanning from 2000 to 2050, the CO
2
emissions generated from global energy activities may achieve the concentration
limit of 500 ppm. China's contribution to global emissions will mainly be
reflected in its cumulative carbon emissions per capita (1850-2050), either in
an energy-saving scenario or low-carbon scenario (see Table
8.2
). In an
enhanced low-carbon scenario, the indicators fall far below the levels of all the
developed countries, of which a low-carbon scenario accounts only 23 % that of
the United States and 37 % that of Japan. This is reflected in a turning point in
national total carbon emissions and per capita emissions after China basically
reaches the stage of industrialization in 2035, followed by a rapid decline.
However, if per capita carbon emissions among developed countries fall below
the world average, while China's remains higher than the world average, China
will inevitably face pressure from the international community to further cut
emissions, regardless of its significant contribution to global emissions reduction
under an enhanced low-carbon scenario.
• China still faces many uncertainties in its low-carbon development path,
including uncertainties in the transfer of knowledge, technological innovations
and transfers of technology as well as the uncertainty of funding for low-carbon
projects. Meanwhile, China's low-carbon energy development also requires a
favorable external environment. Currently, there are often misunderstandings
