Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
490-535 ppm, causing a projected increase in temperature 2.4-2.8 ºC, and
emissions in 2050 will drop by 30-60 % compared to the year 2000. The third
scenario assumes a CO
2
-eq concentration of 535-590 ppm, which may heat up the
earth by 2.8-3.2 ºC, and emissions in 2050 will drop by 30 % or increase by 5 %
compared to the year 2000. These three scenarios are set as the emissions reduction
scenarios by the current international modeling group and in international coopera-
tion discussions.
In order to fully reflect China's future energy demands and carbon emissions
prospects, the research group reviewed existing research results. It is generally
agreed by international agencies that China's future energy demand is likely to
enter a period of rapid growth and even faster growth for high-quality energy, such
as oil and natural gas. Accordingly, the pace of carbon emissions increases will
accelerate. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Informa-
tion Administration (EIA)
3
held that if China's GDP continues to maintain a growth
rate of 6-7 % from now until 2030, energy demand will exceed 4 billion t of coal in
2020 and more than 6 billion t of coal in 2030. Oil demand in 2030 will exceed
900 million t, equivalent to the current U.S. consumption level.
The research group designed four scenarios based on the medium-to-long-term
scenario analysis carried out by the IEA [
14
] with reference to scenario analysis
results and targets for stable concentration as written in theAR4. They also took into
account main drivers affecting China's future energy demands and carbon
emissions.
The four scenarios are: Baseline Scenario, Energy-Saving Scenario, Low-
Carbon Scenario and the Enhanced Low-Carbon Scenario to study China's low-
carbon development path to 2050 as outlined below (see Table
8.1
for summary).
First, the Baseline Scenario. This scenario takes into full consideration domestic
development demands, assuming China's energy consumption per capita by 2050
could be about 10 % lower than the most efficient country today. To some extent,
economic development will still follow the industrialization route of currently
developed countries, but also takes into consideration a later-comer advantage,
technological innovation, technological progress and a gradual improvement in
energy efficiency. Given China's resource conditions, this scenario assumes that
hydropower, nuclear power and renewable energy will develop more quickly,
similar to the energy-saving scenario. However, with the baseline scenario, it is
foreseeable that China will face unprecedented challenges in its domestic resources
protection, ecological environment and greenhouse gas emissions.
Second, the Energy-Saving Scenario. This scenario considers the current energy
conservation scenario (mainly cuts in sulfur dioxide pollutants and chemical oxy-
gen demand etc.) but does not take into consideration any special response to
climate change. This is a very possible scenario for future energy demand and
carbon emissions. With this scenario, attention will be paid to reversing the
3
World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA), International Energy Outlook 2007. (Energy Information
Administration - EIA).