Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
target in the long run. The fundamental causes of this impasse lie in the right to
develop and the development space of involved countries. In any case, the seismic
socioeconomic shifts induced by climate change have already begun. Before the
arrival of a new round of effects, the issue of addressing energy and climate change
challenges will have a profound impact on future national competitiveness.
For China, if incorrectly handled, climate change may constrain China's develop-
ment space and increase the cost of development. If it could be correctly treated by
both global society and China, it may help China in speeding up the introduction of
advanced technologies, improve independent innovation capability and accelerate
its transition to a low carbon energy structure.
8.3
China May Choose a Low-Carbon Development Path
But Faces Many Uncertainties
In the next two to three decades, China intends to chart a path toward rapid
industrialization, compressing the roughly 100-year-long process of industrializa-
tion that had papped in developed countries into a relatively shorter period of time.
Based on this existing development model, this may significantly raise the intensity
of its energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. It is a great challenge for
China in the twenty-first century to successfully create a low-carbon development
path that differs from the traditional path to industrialization.
8.3.1 Research Methodology and Ideas
Over the past decade, along with accelerated industrialization and urbanization
processes, there have been significant changes in China's energy supply. Based on
long-term development trends, the share of conventional fossil fuels in the energy
structure may decline, and there will be significant progress in alternative fuels,
especially in transportation. Renewable energy will develop fast. The pace of these
changes will undoubtedly influence the uncertainties in China's long-term energy
demand and carbon emissions.
By applying a scenario analysis,
2
the authors interpret the request on China's
energy demands and supplies when China achieves the building of a well-off
society by 2020 and that of moderately developed countries by 2050. After taking
into full consideration external impacts on energy demands over the next 30-50
years, the authors set up different energy and carbon emissions scenarios. The
authors hope to help pave China's path to a low-carbon future by using the
2
Scenario analysis is a tool of analyzing the feasibility and requirements of achieving designed
targets by considering alternative possible outcomes. Scenario analysis differs from forecasting in
that it does not explain the best possible scenario of the future but rather focuses on changes in
possible scenarios as well as prerequisites for changes, thereby helping policymakers to better
understand trends.
