Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
energy technology research, and energy transformation. China is now forging ahead
with the “Three-Step Development Strategy” ,
1
which uses a different path for
development and relies on strategic choices that not influence the sustainable
development of China but also directly affect global greenhouse gas emissions.
Using a scenario analysis, this paper set took into account such factors as China's
future gross domestic product (GDP), population and urbanization, sector develop-
ment goals, consumption patterns, resources, technical progress, international trade,
energy policy and environmental requirements. By using quantitative modeling
tools, this paper also gives an overview of the objectives of economic and social
development and “China's energy demands and carbon emission trends in 2050” in
the context of addressing global climate change [
1
,
2
]. The results show that under
certain conditions, China is likely to achieve sustainable development in the social
economy and energy environment, while possibly exploring a low-carbon develop-
ment path with Chinese characteristics.
8.2
Climate Change Is Evolving From an Environmental
Issue Into a Complex Topic
8.2.1 Global Climate Change Is Threatening the Survival
of Humanity
Climate change has become a real threat to the human race in the new century.
Although there have been some doubts about the claims that “carbon dioxide
emissions from the use of fossil fuels will cause global warming,” or that a “2 to
4
C rise in global temperature will inevitably lead to catastrophe,” [
3
,
4
]. Unde-
niably, global warming has been confirmed by a large amount of observation data.
Global warming and the scientific facts are being understood and accepted by more
and more people, while the causal link between human activity and climate change
has been widely recognized by the scientific community, politicians and the public. It
is foreseeable that global warming will not only alter the normal operation of natural
ecosystems but also threaten grain and water security, which are crucial to the
survival of humanity. Most sobering of all is that the impacts of global environmental
disasters caused by climate change are likely irreversible.
As a member of the global community, China is also facing the unprece-
dented threat of climate change. Global warming may also seriously impact
China's natural ecosystems and socio-economic sectors, especially in agriculture,
1
There was a plan for boosting the economy by hitting three major targets over three different time
spans. Originally floated by the central government in 1987, the first step was to raise China's
annual GDP to double the 1980 level by 1990 and to ensure that most of the population had enough
food and clothing. The second step was for annual GDP to double again over the next decade and
ensure that most people were living prosperous lives. The third step is to quadruple China's annual
GDP from 2000 to 2020, build a fully operational market economy and ensure that most people are
living well-off lives.
