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(a)
(b)
900
40
800
30
700
20
600
10
500
r 2 =0.33
r 2 = 0.36
400
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Year
(c)
(d)
(e)
40
80
15
10
30
70
5
0
20
60
-5
-10
10
50
-15
r 2 = 0.72
r 2 = 0.72
40
-20
500
600
700
800
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
500
600
700
800
Warmth Sum (C)
Difference in Warmth Sum (C)
Warmth Sum (C)
(f)
(g)
Fig. 1.11 (a) In Wytham Woods, UK, the mean laying date of great tits has become earlier, especially since the
mid 1970s. (b) Spring temperatures have also increased, as measured by 'Warmth Sum', which is the sum of
daily maximum temperatures between 1 March and 25 April (the pre-laying period). The rates of change in
mean egg laying date with temperature (c) and caterpillar emergence with temperature (d) are similar.
(e) Phenotypic plasticity in response of individual female great tits, measured as their difference in laying date in
successive years plotted against the difference in spring warmth in the same pair of years. Figures a-e from
Charmantier et al (2008). Reprinted with permission from AAAS. (f) Female great tit. Photo © Thor Veen.
(g) Winter moth caterpillar on oak. Photo © Jane Carpenter.
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