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Hoover ( 1994 ) shows that the Cowles Commission approach, which he labels as
“strong apriorism,” is just one of the two strategies to secure invariance. In his view,
it is better to see econometrics as an observational science such as astronomy.
Because the observations made by econometrics instruments are observations of
confluent relations, one should adopt the strategy of “weak apriorism.” Theory
guides observations but observation can suggest which elements of a theory are
unsatisfactory: “Measurement requires prior theory; equally, theory requires prior
measurement” (p. 73). Nevertheless, as Hoover emphasizes,
econometric observations would be practically useless if they were completely unstable. We
must, therefore, count on finding some stability and on supplementing econometric
observations with other information, say institutional facts, if we are to distinguish between
real changes in structure and our inability to focus our observations. (Hoover 1994 , pp. 75-76)
It was this class of stable facts about business cycles that originally were used to
solve the problem of autonomy.
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