Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Figure
11.6.
Population distribution in India in 2005. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Inter-
national database.)
married couples to only one child, the fertility rate dropped to 1.9 children in 1995.
During this same period the total population of China increased from 555 million to
1.2 billion in 1995.
8
The population increase was already built into the age distribution
of the population in 1950. It could not be avoided.
This same increase is already starting to occur in many developing countries, most
notably in Africa and Asia. The five countries that will contribute most to world
population growth before 2050 are expected to be India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria,
and Ethiopia. This will occur even with significant reductions in birth rates.
9
The most obvious result of such large population increases is that citizens of the
so-called developed countries will be in a distinct minority. Japan is already experi-
encing a decline in total population numbers. Other European countries are heading in
the same direction. In 2006 Europe and Africa each had about 12 percent of the
world's population. By 2050 Europe will only have about 7 percent of the world's
population, while Africa will have over 21 percent.
8
How will this affect global
politics?
How will HIV affect the population trends of countries? Experts think there will be
little long-term effect. Even the plagues of the Middle Ages had little long-term effect
on populations. Survivors simply had more children to replace those who died. It is
expected that the same will happen in AIDS-affected countries.
The short-term effects for some countries will, however, be dramatic with
some countries in southern Africa actually experiencing a decreasing population
and many others experiencing a dramatic reduction in population growth. One
thing that makes AIDS different from other diseases is that it can dramatically
decrease the portion of the population that is most productive of both food and
people. People 20 to 30 years of age will be lost in large numbers, thus dramatically
affecting the ability of the society to sustain itself. Included in this is the ability to
maintain a cadre of highly educated individuals needed to carry on research and
education in agriculture.
