AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT - Science for Agriculture and Rural Development in Low-income Countries - page 67

development by combining the different activities and functions (carbon, biodiversity,
agriculture, water) in the context of regional development.
Climate change
Global climate change is currently one of the most pressing development problems.
The effects of climate change are local, and they vary for different systems, sectors
and regions. Climate change has an overarching effect on development. In addition to
the urgency to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, attention is
necessary for possibilities for adaptation of systems to the changing environmental
conditions. This is expressed in the UNFCCC as follows:
“The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments
that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance
with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be
achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt
naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened
and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”
(UNFCCC, article 2)
Although climate change seems marginal compared to the pressing issues of poverty
alleviation, hunger, health, economic development and energy needs, it is becoming
increasingly clear that realization of the MDGs can be seriously hampered by
climate change. Therefore, linkages between development and climate change are
receiving increasing attention in scientific and policy circles (Davidson et al. 2003;
Swart et al. 2003; Huq et al. 2006).
Clearly, agricultural land use will be affected by the effects of changes in climate
and climate variability. Houghton et al. (2001) concluded that in the tropics, yields
would decrease with even a small increase in temperature. Semi-arid and arid areas
are particularly vulnerable to changes in temperature and rainfall. Shifts in agro-
ecological zones will, in some regions, require dramatic changes in production systems.
Climate change will also have an indirect effect on crop production via changes in
water availability and in susceptibility to and incidence of pests and diseases. High
intra- and inter-seasonal variability in food supplies is often the result of unreliable
rainfall and insufficient water for crop and livestock production. In addition to being
a victim, agriculture is also a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, via
land use change, land management, land conversion and livestock husbandry.
Most climate change studies have focused on either reductions in emissions or
response strategies to the adverse effects of climate change and climate variability
(see Box 4). Recently, however, the climate change issue has been incorporated in
the larger challenge of sustainable development (Smith et al. 2003; Huq et al. 2006;
Biemans et al. 2006). As a result, climate policies can be more effective when