FOOD SECURITY - Science for Agriculture and Rural Development in Low-income Countries - page 30

Table 1. Growth (%) of cereal yield, area, and production, developing countries: 1970-90

and 1990-2005 (source: Hossain 2007; based on analysis of trend with FAO time series data)

1970-90 1990-2005

Yield Area Production Yield Area Production

Rice 2.35 0.49 2.84 0.92 0.31 1.23

Wheat 3.75 0.88 4.62 1.27 -0.35 0.91

Maize 2.65 0.97 3.61 1.64 0.66 2.30

All cereals 2.68 0.73 3.41 1.20 0.21 1.41

Price (US$/t) Stock (Million tons)

400 160

Stock

300 120

200 80

Price

100 40

1985 1990 1995 2000 2006

Year

Figure 2. Trends in international rice prices and stocks (end-period), 1985-2006 (source:
Hossain 2007; Stocks data: Papanos, R.S. 2007. The Rice Report, Feb 28 2007 Issue. The
Rice Trader LLC. Houston, TX, USA. Price data: Development Policy Group. World Bank
online)

implies that poverty reduction is the most effective means to achieving food
security.
A central question that has received relatively little attention so far is: “Can we
feed the world without degradation of the natural resource base?” Scenario studies
can provide us with images of possible futures. However, many of such studies in
the past have neglected one or more of the consequences of likely changes in food
demand, consumption patterns, investments required for development of improved
science, agricultural knowledge and technologies, shifts in geographical location of
food production and consumption, consumer behaviour, resource constraints and the
impacts of such changes on food prices and the environment. There is a clear need