Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter 7
YIELD INCREASES OF THE BIOMASS CROPS
SALIX VIMINALIS
AND
MISCANTHUS
×
GIGANTEUS
: A LOOK TO THE FUTURE
Leo M. Vleeshouwers
1. INTRODUCTION
Biomass is regarded as a source of renewable energy with potential for
application in the future. In the Netherlands, biomass crops are projected to
fulfil 1 % of the energy need in 2020 (Van den Heuvel and Gigler 1998). In
analysing the possibilities and limitations of energy production from
biomass, biomass yields are an important component. In most arable crops,
there has been a steady increase in yield over the years, as shown by
agricultural statistics. The increase is due to improved crop genetic traits
and better crop management. Therefore, over a time span of 20 years,
biomass crops are expected to attain higher yields than those estimated for
the present. Table 7.1 summarizes predictions of future biomass crop yields
made by several authors. It shows that there is quite some variation in the
predictions of future yields. Part of the variation can be attributed to
differences in the time span over which the yield increase was considered.
Another part may be attributed to the fact that the predictions cited in Table
7.1 are based on, sometimes implicit, different assumptions. In predicting
future yields, uncertainty cannot be avoided. However, an accurate
description of the premises used to make the predictions may help to
evaluate the uncertainties. This chapter describes two methods for
prediction of future crop yields, and combines them to estimate biomass
yields for
Salix viminalis
(basket willow) and
Miscanthus
×
giganteus
in
the Netherlands in 2020.
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