ON RENEWABLE ENERGY IN RURAL CHINA - Economics of Sustainable Energy in Agriculture - page 197

For the period 1980-1995 the rates of growth of respectively
agricultural income, total agricultural energy consumption, coal, electricity
and oil are 4.9, 3.1, 1.4, 5.2 and 2.4. For the same period the average
income elasticities for respectively total energy, coal, electricity and oil are
0.63, 0.29, 1.1, and 0.49.
The rapid growth of agricultural income and commercial energy
consumption in China is expected to go on in the period 2000-2020. If
agricultural income grows by about 4.9 percent per year through 2020, it is
expected to nearly triple to 726.1 billion Yuan by 2020. The commercial
energy used for agriculture is expected to grow by about 3 percent per year
through 2020, resulting in total consumption for agriculture of about 136
Mtce. Coal, electricity and oil consumption in agriculture are projected to
reach 23.1 Mtce, 82.9 Mtce and 30.6 Mtce, respectively, by 2020 (Table
14.4).
The trend of rural population and energy demand per capita is an
important factor in rural energy projections. At present the population of
rural areas totals 860 million, accounting for 70 percent of the nationwide
population and about 30 percent of the world rural population
(International Statistical Yearbook 1996-1998; World Energy Council
2000). The population is projected to drop gradually because some of the
rural households will migrate to cities, as result of the rapid development
of the national economy after 2000. By 2010 and 2020 the population of
rural areas is expected to total 770 million and 710 million, respectively,
accounting for about 54 percent and 50 percent of nation's total. The
gradual decrease of rural population will be helpful to relax the tension
between demand and supply of rural commercial energy. Per capita
commercial energy consumption for rural households living, however, was
only 0.14 tce in 1995. In 1996 over 72 million people in remote rural China
were still not connected to the grid (Battelle Memorial Institute 1998).
Both the level and consumption of energy demand are affected by
changes in per capita income. In general, the more advanced an economy
and the higher personal income, the greater the demand for energy-using