Future scenarios and strategic choices - Transport Policy and Planning in Great Britain - page 415

Box 24.2 The impact of transport on economic performance
1 Impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), i.e. the total value of goods and
services produced, through:
• increasing the number of inputs used, by stimulating the creation of new irms
and growth in employment
• improving the eficiency with which irms use inputs, i.e. increasing productivity,
by reducing their transport costs (including through greater reliability), facilitating
labour mobility and raising competition
• stimulating innovation through agglomeration economies, trade and foreign
direct investment.
2 Impact on quality of life, through:
• increasing beneits to consumers, e.g. the variety of products available and new
social and leisure opportunities
• reducing time spent in non-business travel, allowing more time to be spent on
other activities
• (positively or negatively) by altering the environment or conditions whilst travelling.
Source: Adapted from Eddington Transport Study Vol 1 Figure 1.1
Eddington studied the connectivity offered by the existing main transport networks
in the UK relative to comparable countries in continental Europe and concluded that
there was no case for adding to these networks. However much of the network is
already congested for the majority of the time in key areas where economic success has
concentrated demand, notably in and around urban areas, at international gateways
and on busy inter-urban corridors. As Eddington's analysis developed, these came to
be identified as the 'priority areas' for future investment.
As a prelude to developing recommendations a wide range of scenarios were
tested to reflect uncertainties in both transport demand and supply. One uncertainty
was transport policy itself! An initial assumption used as the basis of the 'central
forecast' was that government spending would continue in the same pattern as in
recent years. This implies an additional 3,500 lane km being added to the motorway
and trunk road network during the period 2003-2025. It is important to emphasise
therefore that, unlike conventional scheme appraisal, the reference case used to
compare scenarios and policy options is not 'do nothing' or 'do minimum', but rather
'business as usual'.
On this basis the National Transport Model (NTM) forecasts that, with an increase
of 71% in GDP over the period there would be a 28% increase in car traffic (vehicle
km), a 12% increase in HGV traffic and 70% increase in light goods traffic. Passenger
travel on inter-urban rail services is forecast to increase by over 35%, bus travel by
21% and walking and cycling by 11%. These increases are driven by:
• rising population
• household incomes rising in real terms
• car ownership continuing to rise (especially in areas other than London which
currently have low levels)