Future scenarios and strategic choices - Transport Policy and Planning in Great Britain - page 413

The Smart Social Policy cluster is more balanced, relying less on technological
improvements but dependent on major behavioural change in a variety of contexts. It
allows full achievement of the target CO 2 reduction. (It also has other attributes - no
increase in traffic, more liveable cities, better public transport, greater equity and so
on, but implies some additional cost and loss of 'freedom' to drive.)
The overall conclusion reached is that the 60% CO 2 reduction target can be
achieved by a combination of strong behavioural change and strong technological
innovation. But it is in travel behaviour that the real change must take place ….
We really should see this as a new age for integrated transport and urban
planning - a huge opportunity - with the global environmental imperative as the
catalyst for a major improvement in the way we live our lives.
(ibid. pp. 18 and 21)
The King Review
In the light of Stern's recommendations about the scale of CO 2 reductions to be
aimed for in the UK, the Chancellor set up a review by Professor Julia King 'to
examine the vehicle and fuel technologies that, over the next 25 years, could help
to decarbonise road transport, particularly cars'. Her report (HM Treasury 2008)
concluded that:
Technology that can reduce CO 2 emissions per car by 30 per cent (on a like for
like basis) is already close to market and could be standard within 5-10 years.
Despite estimated cost increases of £1,000-£1,500 per new vehicle many of these
changes are likely to represent good economic value to the purchaser as a result
of their impact on fuel economy ….
Cars that emit 50% less CO 2 per km than the equivalent current models could be
on the road by 2030, subject to advances in hybrid and battery technologies and
industry overcoming cost barriers.
Longer term, vehicle technologies to enable a 90% reduction in per km
emissions, most likely based on battery-electric propulsion systems are feasible.
Achieving this benefit however is dependent on very low CO 2 power generation.
(ibid. Executive Summary paras 14-15)
Given likely constraints on biofuels as a source of supply, carbon-free transport in
the long term will be dependent on clean power. As the world moves towards electric
vehicles, so countries' road transport CO 2 emissions will increasingly be determined by
the composition of their power generation sector. Making progress on decarbonising
power generation therefore represents an even more urgent challenge than electric
vehicle technologies because of the lead time in implementation.
Significantly King steps outside her remit somewhat to address the issue of consumer
behaviour. Her review estimates that savings of around 10-15% could come from this
source, much of it in the next few years. In particular four of her recommendations
highlight aspects of the 'smarter choices' agenda - reinforcing their complementary
potential noted in the CfIT and VIBAT studies above.
King's comments about consumer behaviour invite questions about public
awareness of climate change, attitudes towards it and the relationship between