Future scenarios and strategic choices - Transport Policy and Planning in Great Britain - page 411

With 70% of the carbon emissions in the CCP due to be delivered by technology
we believe there is a missed opportunity to capture greater cost-effective carbon
savings from transport and 'lock in' the positive impacts of technological advances
using measures to encourage behavioural change through fiscal and non-fiscal
means.

(CfIT 2007 paras 3.41-3.43)

CfIT recommended adoption of an integrated set of cost-effective measures that
would increase the CCP savings by 7 MtC - thereby achieving a reduction in transport
emissions of 14% against 1990 levels by 2020 instead of stabilising broadly at 2005
levels. Their recommendations were summarised as follows:

1 Adopt a mandatory target for new car sales in the EU to achieve an average

of 100g CO 2 /km by 2020 complemented by a package of supporting measures
incentivising use of low-emission vehicles.

2 Reinforce positive driver behaviour through a combination of measures to sustain

fuel prices, encourage eco-driving techniques and promote greater adherence to
speed limits.

3 Secure more intensive application of smarter choices to reduce car use, reinforced

by improvements to the carbon efficiency of public transport.

4 Secure carbon savings through technological, purchasing and operational changes

in the fleets of vans and lorry vehicles.

Details are given in Chapter 4 of the CfIT report.

The VIBAT study

The balancing of technological and other measures in the transport field was explored
in a study undertaken as part of the DfT's Transport Horizons Research Programme
(Hickman and Banister 2006). In this case however it was the practicability rather
than the cost-effectiveness of different measures which was the main focus. In addition
a more demanding target was posed of a 60% reduction on 1990 CO 2 levels by 2030 as
originally set by the Royal Commission in 1994.
The research used the innovative technique of 'backcasting' from a set of
contrasting images of the future (but with the same target CO 2 reduction). Two
images were adopted. The first - labelled 'new market economy' - had economic
growth as its key driver and a policy emphasis on the contribution of technology. The
second - labelled 'smart social policy' - had quality of life as its key driver, assumed
slightly lower rates of economic growth and had a policy emphasis on behavioural
change.
Over 120 possible individual policy measures were identified - most are well known
and many have been implemented on an ad hoc basis in the UK in recent years. Eleven
policy packages were then developed by combining individual measures which work
well together and concentrating on those likely to create positive synergies. Initial
estimates were then produced of their carbon-reduction potential, with a range of
values reflecting the intensity of application (Table 24.2).

A key message … during the policy packaging stage is that the roll-out of many
of the measures needs to be prioritised, with a step change in the resources used.