Future scenarios and strategic choices - Transport Policy and Planning in Great Britain - page 410

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Energy
sector

Industry Residential Services Transport
Note: Energy Sector includes electricity generation and upstream oil and gas production

Figure 24.1 UK MARKAL-Macro model emissions reduction pathways by sector achieving a 60%
reduction in total UK emissions by 2050 (source: Energy White Paper 2007)

extremely uncertain. This applies particularly to energy demand, future oil prices and
the availability and cost of new technologies (such as hydrogen and fuel cells) which
are still in their infancy.
The model is limited in that it is focused on the technological possibilities for
reducing emissions. Behavioural change is only represented as a response to costs
(including the implicit carbon price) whereby demand can be reduced or the efficiency
of a given mode improved, e.g. through a switch in fuels. (Modal shift is not allowed for.)
Nevertheless the model suggests that transport could make a significant contribution
towards a cost-effective programme of reducing transport emissions, falling by as much
as 45% against 2000 levels by 2050 (Figure 24.1). Projections are based on an overall
increase of 50% in vehicle distance during this period.
In the base case - where transport is not constrained by carbon-reduction targets
- petrol and diesel hybrid (electric) vehicles are introduced in a range of modes from
2020 and buses, lorries and vans move to hydrogen after 2030. In the 60% carbon-
constrained case the introduction of hybrid vehicles is accelerated in the medium term
and biofuels play a more important role. Use of hydrogen is less prevalent under this
scenario since, unlike the base case where it is derived from fossil fuels, it is more costly
to produce.

CfIT study

CfIT commissioned its own research on this subject and concluded:

We are concerned that the transport element of the CCP appears to depend
heavily on relatively expensive measures to deliver emissions savings ….