Future scenarios and strategic choices - Transport Policy and Planning in Great Britain - page 409

Table 24.1 Expected carbon savings from transport measures included in the Climate Change

Programme [MtC a year against 1990 base] (source: CfIT 2007 Table 3.1 (from Defra
and DTI original sources))

2010 2015 2020

Voluntary Agreements with vehicle manufacturers
(including supporting VED and company car tax measures)

2.3 3.1 3.6

Successor to Voluntary Agreements
(based on a target of 135g CO 2 /km by 2020

0.3 1.1 1.8

Fuel duty escalator
(1993-2000)

1.9 1.9 1.9

Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation
(based on 5% of fuel sales by 2010)

1.6 1.6 1.6

Sustainable distribution in Scotland 0.1 0.1 0.1

Ten Year Plan
(estimated to 2010, assumed constant thereafter)

0.8 0.8 0.8

Smarter Choices
(low intensity)

0.2 0.2 0.2

TOTAL 7.3 8.9 10.0

being 2008-2012). These must be set by 1 June 2009 with the Government reporting
to Parliament its policies and proposals to meet the budgets as soon as practicable after
that. To advise Government on the level of carbon budgets and where cost effective
savings can be made, the Act establishes a Committee on Climate Change, a new
independent expert body. A Framework Document has been prepared which sets out
the role and working practices of the Committee (DECC 2008). The advice from the
Committee can be viewed at www.theccc.org.uk.
The planned reductions do not have to be achieved solely by end users in the
UK - to do so could be economically damaging as it would imply raising the carbon
price of transport and other commodities above prevailing levels in international
markets. A proportion is expected to come instead from the EU trading scheme, i.e.
through businesses purchasing carbon allowances from other countries or investing
in carbon abatement projects in developing countries as is allowed for under the
current Kyoto protocol. The Climate Change Committee has a further duty to advise
on the appropriate balance between action at UK, European and international levels
for each carbon budget. with the Government subsequently introducing secondary
legislation which will set a limit on the use of international carbon credits in each
period.

24.4 Further scenarios for reducing CO 2 emissions from transport

MARKAL-Macro model

As part of work undertaken for the 2007 Energy White Paper. an economy-wide model
('MARKAL-Macro') was developed to identify how the UK could meet future energy
demands at the least cost to society. This work can only be regarded as an illustrative
framework since it necessarily relies on a number of assumptions which in practice are