Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 23.2 Forecast rail passenger revenue and application of Government funding 2009/10 -
2013/14 (source: CM 7176 Table 12.1)
£bn nominal*
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
CP4 total
Passenger revenue
6.7
7.3
7.8
8.4
9.0
39.2
SoFA (Goverment )
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.0
15.3
of which, e.g.
Franchise payments
1.6
1.4
1.1
0.9
0.5
5.5
Network grant
1.5
1.6
2.0
2.1
2.4
9.6
Governmentt support
32%
29%
28%
26%
25%
28%
Note: Excludes Government payment for HLOS requirements (see text). Figures assume inflation
at 2.75% a year; excluding this (i.e. in real terms). Government support falls by 19% to 2013/14
compared with 2009/10
The growth in use which is the basis of the financial forecasts cannot be
accommodated without complementary investment. The High Level Output
Specification (HLOS) included in the White Paper specified:
• an increase in capacity to accommodate passenger growth of 22.5% and freight
growth of 30% to 2014
• a 3% reduction in the risk of death or injury to passengers or employees
• an increase in reliability from 88% to 92.6% and a 25% reduction in delays of
more than 30 minutes.
This is to be achieved by an investment programme during CP4 to which the
Government will contribute a total of £8.9bn. Its main components are listed in Box
23.2.
The plans were conceived against the background of forecasts to 2030 but the
investment strategy itself did not go beyond 2014. Ruth Kelly commented:
We are not prepared to commit now to 'all-or-nothing' projects like network-
wide electrification or a high-speed line for which the longer term need remains
uncertain and which would make little contribution to today's challenges …
We would end up diverting our resources away from the immediate priorities of
passengers.
(reported in Modern Railways September 2007)
Nevertheless preparatory work for the longer tem is continuing, including
development of the Inter-City Express train - a replacement for the IC125. Further
capacity enhancements will be included in the next HLOS to be published in 2012,
based on the intermodal analysis of options recommended in the Eddington Study.
As with the Government's current approach to motorways, the 2007 HLOS gives
the impression of focusing on immediate problems but otherwise of marking time as far
as a longer term national strategy is concerned. Christian Wolmar commented:
The White Paper contains a short-list of improvements at some of the worst
pinchpoints but it was really the least that ministers could offer without admitting
they do not give a fig. Ruth Kelly is trying to perpetuate the myth that it is feasible
to reduce the subsidy going into railways while simultaneously increasing their
 
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