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k
m
ξ α
P
(
t
)
=
(
1
+
ln(
)
)(
W
(
t
)
V
(
t
)
)
ω
j
i
ij
i
(6)
i
=
1
i
=
k
+
1
Assuming that totally m constraints ( 1 i m ) are considered, when k+1 i m, ω i
(binary variable: 0 or 1) are restrictive constraints such as water body, slope etc, which
may include local, regional and global levels with equal weight.
When 1 i k , they are non-restrictive constraints. W i (t) is the weight value of con-
straint i computed from eq.5. For proximity variables like the distance to major road,
here a negative exponential function is employed to calculate V ij (t) . Urban models
based on economic theory [14] , and discrete choice theory [15] had made widespread
uses of the negative exponential function.
V ij (t)=e - φ dij 0<V ij (t)<1
(7)
d ij is the value of proximity variable i at cell j. φ is the density gradient for quanti-
fying its spatial influence. Usually, 0<φ<1, and φ varies with factor i . Eq.7 is actually
to standardise non-restrictive variables.
In order to generate the patterns that are closer to reality, a stochastic disturbance is
introduced as (1+ln(ξ) α ) [16] . ξ is a random variable within [0∼1]. α is a parameter
controlling the size or strength of the stochastic perturbation. P(t) represents the po-
tential or probability of development of cell j at time t, which is the major driving
force of local growth.
In our model, neighbourhood size is not universal globally and is locally param-
eterised, which varies with different projects. Neighbourhood effect i.e. 'action-at-
distance' is also represented as one or two non-restrictive variables in eq.6, which
indicate the spatial influences of developed cell (including both the new and the old)
on its surrounding sites.
(8)
P j (t) → P j' (t)
(9)
∆L(t )=L(t)-L(t-1), L(0)=0
Eq.8 builds a transition from P j (t) to P j' (t), which is to reorder from maximum to
minimum. ∆ L(t) in eq.9 is the land development demand at the phase from t-1 to t as
L(t) is the accumulative amount of land development till time t .
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