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LGSS Algorithm
, α
1. Let t be the number of observation time points. Let
α
2 be two user-
1
S =
0, the set of saved
models . Let us identify any t -expanded matrix with the set of vectors con-
stituted by its columns;
2. Compute the matrices
defined significance values for partial F-tests. Let
of the t -expansions of substance differences
and of regressors, respectively;
3. Compute the log-gain scores for all the (expanded) regressors of
D , G
G
,and
G be the subset/submatrix
sort them accordingly in decreasing order. Let
having the best log-gain scores (according to a prefixed
user-defined threshold);
4. Let
of regressors of
G
G , and compute the
M
be a user-defined initial subset/submatrix of
following LSE of unknown values vec
(C)
:
(A M) ×
vec
(C)=
vec
(D)
(3.45)
5. For each expanded regressor g t
G / M
, compute the LSE of Eq. (3.45),
g t
where
M=M ∪{
}
, then compute the partial F-test of the extended model
g t
, according to Eq.(3.43);
6. Is there some model, among those computed at the previous step, having
a partial F-test value higher than the value of (3.44) where
M ∪{
}
with respect to the current model
M
α = α 1 ?IfNo,
then go to step 11;
7. Update
as the model, among those of step 5, having the highest value of
partial F-test;
8. For each regressor g t
M
M
, compute the LSE of Eq. (3.45), where
M =
g t
M /{
}
, and then compute the partial F-test of the current model
M
with
g t
, according to Eq.(3.43);
9. Is there some model, among those computed at the previous step, having a
F-test value lower than the value of (3.44) where
respect to the reduced model
M /{
}
α = α 2 ? If No, then go to
step 5;
10. Update
as the model, among those of step 8, having the lowest value of
partial F-test, then go to step 5;
11. Add the current model
M
M
to the set
S
of saved models;
G = G
G as
G ∪{
g t
,where g t
12. Is
? If No, then update
}
is the expanded
G / G having the highest log-gain score, and go
regressor among those in
to step 5;
13. Among the models of
select the best one, by using the indexes of
Eqs. (3.35), (3.36), (3.37), (3.39);
14. Provide as output the model selected at the previous step with its evaluation
of parameters and confidence intervals of regressors coefficients.
S
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