Socio-Cognitive Model of Trust: Basic Ingredients - Trust Theory: A Socio-Cognitive and Computational Model - page 53

Table 2.1 Relationships between Expectation and Surprise

p ¬ p

p t ) t < t

∧ (Goal X p t )

(Bel X t No surprise + achievement surprise + frustration

disappointment

¬ p t ) t < t ∧ (Goal X p t ) (Bel X t surprise + non-frustration relief no surprise + frustration

At tX believes that at t (later) p will be true; but now - at t - she knows that Not p , while
she continues to want that p . Disappointment contains goal-frustration and forecast failure,
surprise. It entails a greater sufferance than simple frustration for several reasons: (i) for the
additional failure; (ii) for the fact that this impacts also on the self-esteem as epistemic agent
(Badura's 'predictability' and related 'controllability') and is disorienting; (iii) for the fact that
losses of a pre-existing fortune are worse than missed gains (see below), and a long expected
and surely desired situation are so familiar and 'sure' that we feel a sense of loss.
The stronger and well-grounded the belief, the more disorienting and restructuring is the
surprise (and the stronger the consequences on our sense of predictability) (Lorini et al. , 2007).
The more important the goal is, the more frustrated the subject.
In disappointment, these effects are combined: the more sure the subject is about the outcome
and the more important the outcome is for her, the more disappointed the subject will be.

The degree of disappointment seems to be a function of both dimensions and components 29 .
It seems to be felt as a unitary effect:

'How much are you disappointed?' 'I'm very disappointed: I was sure to succeed'
'How much are you disappointed?' 'I'm very disappointed: it was very important for me'
'How much are you disappointed?' 'Not at all: it was not important for me'
'How much are you disappointed?' 'Not at all: I have just tried; I was expecting a failure'.

Obviously, worst disappointments are those which place great value on the goal and a high
degree of certainty. However, the surprise component and the frustration component remain
perceivable and a function of their specific variables.

Relief

Relief is based on a 'negative' expectation that results in being wrong. The prediction is
invalidated but the goal is realized. There is no frustration but surprise. In a sense relief is the
opposite of disappointment: the subject was 'down' while expecting something bad, and now
feels much better because this expectation is invalidated.

p t ) ( Bel X p t ) ( Bel X t p t ) RELIEF : ( Goal X ¬ ∧ ∧ ¬

29 As a first approximation of the degree of disappointment one might assume some sort of multiplication of the
two factors: Goal-value ∗ Belief-certainty. Similarly to 'Subjective Expected Utility': the greater the SEU the more
intense the Disappointment. ∗ = multiplication.