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2.3.4 The Implicit Counterpart of Expectations
Since we introduce a quantification of the degree of subjective certainty and reliability of belief
about the future (the forecast) we get a hidden, strange but nice consequence. There are other
implicit opposite beliefs and thus implicit Exp. For 'implicit' belief we mean here a belief that
is not 'written', is not contained in any 'data base' (short term, working, or long term memory)
but is only potentially known by the subject since it can be simply derived from actual beliefs
(see Section 8.2.1 for more details). See also Figure 8.3 and the following discussion for a
more specific analysis about implicit expectations.
2.3.5 Emotional Response to Expectation is Specific: the Strength
of Disappointment
As we said, the effects of the
invalidation
of an expectation are also very different depending
on: a) the positive or negative character of the expectation; b) the strengths of the components.
Given the fact that
X
has previous expectations, how does this change her evaluation of and
reaction to a given event?
Invalidated Expectations
We call invalidated expectation an expectation that happens to be wrong: i.e. while expecting
that
p
at time
t
,
X
now beliefs that
NOT p
at time
t
.
p
t
)
(
Bel
X
t
p
t
)
where
(
t
>
(
Bel
X
t
∧
¬
t
)
This crucial belief is the
'invalidating'
belief.
Relative to the goal component it represents 'frustration', 'goal-failure' (is the
frustrating
belief): I desire, wish, want that
p
but I know that
not p
.
FRUSTRATION: (Goal
X
p
t
)
p
t
)
Relative to the prediction belief, it represents 'falsification', 'prediction-failure':
INVALIDATION:
(Bel
X
∧
(Bel
X
¬
t
p
t
)
t
p
t
); where (t
>
t) and (t
>
t)
(Bel
X
t
p
t
)
represents the former illusion or delusion (
X
illusorily believed at time
t
that at
t
p
would be true).
∧
(Bel
X
¬
This configuration provides also the cognitive basis and the components of '
surprise
'
:
the more certain the prediction the more intense the surprise.
Given positive and negative
expectations and the answer of the world, that is the
frustrating
or
gratifying
belief, we have:
the configuration shown in Table 2.1.
Disappointment
Relative to the whole mental state of 'positively expecting' that
p
,the
invalidating
&
frustrating
belief produces 'disappointment' that is based on this basic configuration (plus the affective
and cognitive reaction to it):
DISAPPOINTMENT : (
%
Goal
X
period
(
t
,
t
)
p
t
)
(
%
Bel
X
t
p
t
)
(
%
Bel
X
t
p
t
)
∧
∧
¬
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