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for something. She is concerned with her prediction; and has the
goal to know
whether the
expected event will really happen (Castelfranchi, 2005) (Miceli and Castelfranchi, 2002);
(Lorini and Castelfranchi, 2003).
We have to introduce, briefly, our theory of expectations as peculiar mental representation,
because it predicts and explains a lot of the features and behavior of 'trust' (like its complement
or counterpart, like its exposure to disappointment, like its structural link and ambivalence
towards fear (for example towards the authorities), and so on).
2.3 Expectations: Their Nature and Cognitive Anatomy
'Expectations' are not just 'predictions'; they are not fully synonyms. And we do not want
to use 'expectations' (like in the literature) just to mean 'predictions', that is, epistemic
representations about the future. We consider, in particular, a 'forecast' as a mere belief about
a future state of the world and we distinguish it from a simple 'hypothesis'. The difference is in
terms of
degree of certainty
: a hypothesis may involve the belief that future
p
is possible while
in a forecast the belief that future
p
is probable. A forecast implies that the chance threshold
has been exceeded (domain of probability).
Putting aside the degree of confidence (we need a general term covering weak and strong
predictions), for us 'expectations' has a more restricted meaning (and this is why a com-
puter can produce weather 'predictions' or 'forecasts' but does not have 'expectations'). In
'expectations':
(i) the prediction is
relevant
for the predictor; he is
concerned
,
interested
, and that is why
(ii) he is 'expecting', that is the prediction is aimed at being verified; he is
waiting
in order to
know whether the prediction is true or not.
22
Expectation is a suspended state
after
the formulation of a prediction.
23
If there is an
expectation then there is a prediction, but not the other way round.
2.3.1 Epistemic Goals and Activity
First of all,
X
has the goal of knowing whether the predicted event or state really happens
(epistemic goal). She is 'waiting for' this; at least out of curiosity. This concept of 'waiting
for' and of 'looking for' is necessarily related to the notion of expecting and expectation, but
not to the notion of prediction.
22
Notice that the first two meanings of 'to expect' in an English dictionary are the following ones:
-
to believe with confidence, or think it likely, that an event will happen in the future
-
to wait for, or look forward to, something that you believe is going to happen or arrive
While the definition of 'to forecast' is as follows:
-
to predict or work out something that is likely to happen, for example, the weather conditions for the days
ahead
(Encarta
R
World English Dictionary © 1999 Microsoft Corporation). Notice, the second component of 'expecting'
meaning (absent in 'forecasting'):
wait for, or look forward to
. But also the idea that there is some 'confidence' in
expectation: the agent
counts on
that.
23
'Prediction' is the result of the action of predicting; but 'expectation' is not the result of the action of expecting;
it is that action or the outcome of a prediction relevant to goals, the basis of such an action.
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