The Economic Reductionism and Trust (Ir)rationality - Trust Theory: A Socio-Cognitive and Computational Model - page 238

Complementary
Expectation

Expectation

Implies

BEL X,t 100%-Perc (p is false)
GOAL X,t 100%-Perc (p is false)

BEL X,t Perc (p is true)
GOAL X,t Perc (p is true)

X

Figure 8.3 The expectation of an event (with a defined probability) implies also the expectation (with
a correlated probability) of the denied event

Optimism -3

Moreover, 'optimism' in a sense is not only a prospective attitude, it is a more global attitude
('rose-tinted glasses'), even in an a posteriori evaluation of present results or of the past.
Hence the saying: given a glass of water half-full, the optimist will see it as 'half full', while
the pessimist will see it as 'half empty'. That is, the optimist will focus on the positive result,
on what one has got, on the (even small) achievement or gain; and she will balance her
disappointment with such a consolation. The pessimist, on the contrary, will focus on what
has not been achieved, on what is lacking, and this will destroy, make marginal what has been
obtained.
It is important to notice how these different perceptions of reality will reinforce the subjective
prospective attitudes: the optimist will have their view confirmed that the positive expectation
was not so wrong and that it is realistic to make good predictions; their attitude will be
reinforced. The same for the pessimistic attitude! Both attitudes are 'self-fulfilling prophecies',
self-realizing predictions; thus, both of them produce the expected results (or see the results
as expected) and reinforce and reproduce themselves (Castelfranchi, 2000).
Is trust a form of optimism? An optimistic attitude? No; not necessarily. The fact is that
without trust there is no society (Locke, Parsons, Garfinkel, Luhmann, etc.; see Chapter 9): so
both optimistic people and pessimistic people have to trust in some way and under subjective
limits and decisions. It is true: trust may be based on a very prudent and pessimistic attitude:
'I have really 'decided' - after a serious evaluation of the risks - on the basis of data and titles,