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(expectation) is not so subjectively irrational. Unfortunately, the same reinforcement underlies
a pessimistic attitude!
Optimism -2
Another fundamental feature of optimism is the fact that it focuses, makes explicit and throws
attention onto the positive side of expectations. Actually expectations - including expectations
on which trust is based - have a Janus nature, a double face.
In fact, since we introduce the idea of quantification of the degree of subjective certainty
and reliability of belief about the future (the forecast), we get a hidden, strange, but nice
consequence. There are other implicit opposite beliefs and thus implicit expectations .
For 'implicit' beliefs we mean in this case a belief that is not 'written', contained in any
'data base' (short term, working, or long term memory) but is only potentially known by the
subject since it can be simply derived from actual beliefs. For example, while my knowledge
that Buenos Aires is the capital city of Argentina is an explicit belief that I have in some
memory and I have only to retrieve it, on the contrary my knowledge that Buenos Aires is not
the capital city of Greece (or of Italy, or of India, and so on) is not in any memory, but can
just be derived (when needed) from what I explicitly know. While it remains implicit, merely
potential, until is not derived, it has no effect in my mind; for example, I cannot perceive
possible contradictions: my mind is only potentially contradictory if I believe that p , I believe
that q , and p implies not q , but I didn't derive that not q .
Now, a belief that '70% it is the case that p ', logically (but not psycho-logically!) implies a
belief that '30% it is the case that not p '. 8 This has interesting consequences on expectations
and related emotions. The positive expectation that p entails an implicit (but sometimes even
explicit and compatible) negative expectation (see Figure 8.3).
This means that any hope implicitly contains some fear, and that any worry implicitly
preserves some hope. But also means that when one gets a 'sense of relief' because a serious
threat that was expected does not arrive and the world is conforming to your desires, you
also get (or can get) some exhaltation. It depends on your focus of attention and framing
(Kahneman, 2000): are you focused on your worry and non existent threat, or on the unexpected
achievement? Vice versa when you are satisfied about the actual expected realization of an
important goal, you can also achieve some measure of relief while focusing on the implicit
previous worry.
When one feels a given emotion (for example, fear), although not necessarily at the very
moment of feeling it, one also feels the complementary emotion (hope) in a sort of oscillation
or ambivalence and affective mixture. Only when the belief is explicitly represented and one
can focus - at least for a moment - one's attention on it, can it generate the corresponding
emotion.
Optimists do not think (elaborate) on the possibility of failure, the involved risks, or the
negative parts of the outcome; or at least, they put them aside: they do not focus on it. In this
way, they, for example, avoid the elicited feeling of worry, of avoidance, of prudence, or of
non-enthusiasm ('OK, it will be good, but
...
.; not so good').
8 We are simplifying the argument. In fact it is possible that there is an interval of ignorance, some lack of evidence;
that is that I 45% evaluate that p and 30% that Not p , having a gap of 25% neither in favor of p nor of Not p [29] [30].
 
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