The Economic Reductionism and Trust (Ir)rationality - Trust Theory: A Socio-Cognitive and Computational Model - page 236

others ( signaling ) can per se - in social interaction - be rewarding, can per se facilitate the
success; for example of the courtship or of the examination.
This is why optimists are favored and more successful in many cases, compared with
people with a more pessimistic and depressed attitude, although the latter might have a
more realistic perception of their control (or lack of control) over events, or of the objective
probabilities.
Having the 'prediction' (prophecy) is a factor that comes into the process which determines
the result; thus it is a prediction that comes true, is fulfilled, thanks to its very existence. This
is why trust is some sort of a 'self-fulfilling prophecy'.
However, not only can trust work like this, but also suspect and distrust can have self-
realizing effects. For example, if X wants to be sure about Y , and wants to have proof and
evidence about Y 's trustworthiness, and creates repeated occasions for monitoring and testing
Y 's reliability (perhaps even exposing Y to 'temptations' in order to verify his fidelity), he is
in fact altering the 'probability' of Y 's betrayal.
Y might be irritated by X 's controls and this irritation creates hostility; or Y can be disap-
pointed and depressed by X 's lack of trust and this might decrease either his confidence or
his motivation. Moreover, in general, as a trusting attitude creates a positive feeling, and also
a reciprocal trust, and a diffuse trust atmosphere; analogously, diffidence elicits diffidence,
suspicion or mistrust produces offence or distance.
Our explanation is as follows. In life there are two quite different kinds of 'lotteries':
a) Lotteries where the probabilities of success are fixed a priori and independent to the
subject and their mental attitudes. This is, for example, the case of playing dice or betting
at roulette. The probability is given and the subject has no influence at all on the result;
it doesn't depend on their prayers, or feelings, or on how they throw the dice (excluding
possible tricks), and so on. In this kind of lottery there should be more dangers for optimists
and some advantage (in the case of the risk of losing opportunities) for pessimists. However,
there are other - more frequent and more important - lotteries in our social life.
b) Lotteries where the probabilities of the favorable result are not given, but are influenced
by the attitude, the expectations, and even the feeling of the subject. Expectations in these
cases are self-fulfilling prophecies . This is the case, for example, of an attempt to seduce
a woman; an optimistic attitude - giving to the subject and exhibiting self-confidence,
providing more persistence (less perplexity) and commitment, which also might mean to
the other a stronger interest and motivation - can influence the probability of success
which is not a priori given. The same holds for an interview for a job or for a contract;
and in many social circumstances where our success depends both on our investment and
persistence (and we invest and persist proportionally to the expected probability), and on
the impression we give to the partners. So, optimism might be a real advantage. However,
this makes optimism 'adaptive', 'effective', but not yet subjectively 'rational', although it
paradoxically makes 'true' and realistic an expectation, which would be ungrounded (and
subjectively irrational).
Optimism may be a 'subjectively rational' attitude if we assume some sort of awareness
or knowledge of its self-fulfilling mechanism. And in fact we can assume a sort of implicit
belief about this: the optimist has reinforced their position by practising their 'ungrounded'
belief; has acquired by experience an implicit knowledge of such an effect. Thus their belief