Environmental Engineering Reference
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2.5
CO 2
N 2 O
CH 4
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
a
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Emission changes
2.5
SO 2
2.0
NH 3
Carb. Aerosols
1.5
NO x
1.0
0.5
0.0
b
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Bioavailable deposition changes
2.5
SFe
2.0
PO 4
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
c
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Fig. 2.3 Relative changes in green house gas concentrations (a), for carbon dioxide ( black ),
nitrous oxide ( cyan ), and methane ( red ), relative to concentrations in 2000, based on atmospheric
and ice core measurements for the past time period [ 127 - 130 ]. For the future, estimates are based
on the representative concentration pathways estimates for four different scenarios [ 101 - 107 ],
represented by the four lines into the future. Emission changes for important species, all
normalized to 2000 values (b) for sulfur dioxide ( black ), ammonia ( cyan ), carbonaceous aerosols
( red ), and nitrogen oxides ( blue ) based on historical estimates [ 18 ], and for future estimates, the
representative concentration pathways [ 101 - 107 ]. Deposition changes for bioavailable iron
( black ) and phosphorus ( blue ) are shown relatively to 2000 estimates (c), based on
historical estimates and future estimates, using estimates of desert dust changes from [ 89 ],
assuming in the future the model mean for no carbon dioxide fertilization changes in source
area from [ 131 ], with iron solubility estimates from [ 64 , 65 ], scaled by the sulfur dioxide emissions
changes shown in (b), and for combustion soluble iron sources from [ 64 ] scaled by the black
carbon emission changes included in (b). For soluble phosphorus (phosphates), desert dust
estimate changes are the same as described for iron, and combustion sources of phosphorus
come from [ 28 ], and are scaled by black carbon emissions, included in (b)
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