Marine Biogeochemistry - Ecological Systems - page 216

Role of Modeling
Mathematical models provide an approach for integrating and synthesizing the
knowledge and understanding obtained from measurements of oceanic biogeo-
chemical processes. The use of biogeochemical models in ocean research has
a long history [ 37 , 38 ] but their use was advanced significantly in the early 1990s
when a model that simulated nitrogen cycling through the lower trophic levels in
the oceanic mixed layer became generally available [ 39 ], which subsequently has
provided the basis for the coupled circulation-biogeochemical models that are now
embedded in regional, basin, and global scale models.
The skill of the current generation of biogeochemical models is sufficient to allow
projections of future states that may result from climate variability and the oceanic
uptake of anthropogenic carbon [ 40 - 42 ]. The patterns and distributions emerging
from these simulations show shifts in phytoplankton distributions and marine biomes,
alteration of phytoplankton species assemblages, and modified lower trophic level
community structure [ 43 - 45 ], all of which have direct and important consequences for
biogeochemical cycling. Simulations of the effect of increasing atmospheric CO 2 and
its uptake by the ocean show reductions in ocean pHand in saturation levels of calcium
carbonate, which have serious consequences for many marine organisms [ 46 ].
Advances in conceptual understanding, modeling techniques, and data availabil-
ity have made predictive marine biogeochemical models a feasible goal [ 47 ].
However, modeling for prediction is still rapidly developing and much remains to
be done in generating appropriate frameworks and in collection of data sets that
support predictive modeling for marine biogeochemical cycling [ 48 , 49 ].
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