Ecosystem Services - Ecological Systems - page 94

Dynamic Effects: Shocks and Uncertainty
Dynamic changes, such as in climate and in the nitrogen cycle - as well as changes
arising through economic development and evolving human preferences over time -
are very important. The possibility of feedbacks within ecosystems, and between ES
and human behavior, is a key area for further development. Feedback effects can give
rise to thresholds and rapid changes in systems that can fundamentally alter system
outcomes [ 60 ]. The ability to incorporate shocks and the possibility of surprises is
another area where further development is needed. Fires, droughts, and disease all
can have major influences on ecosystems and affect the services produced. Changes
in economic conditions or fads in human behavior can similarly cause major changes
in systems (e.g., financial crises). The occurrence of each of these and other potential
disturbances is difficult to predict but virtually certain to come about. Understanding
their likely impacts on ecological and social systems will help us prepare for them.
Valuation in Monetary and Non-monetary Terms
for Decision-Making
Monetary valuation of ES is not nearly as prevalent as sometimes assumed. More
typically, real-world applications of the ES framework rely on biophysical values to
inform policy design, such as measures of water quality or flood risk.
Value is not always easily characterized or fully captured in monetary terms, so
it is important to characterize value in multiple dimensions, including health,
livelihood support, cultural significance, etc. (e.g., [ 17 ]). This will help ensure
that valuation and broader decision-making approaches are inclusive of the range
of benefits and people concerned [ 28 ]. Interdisciplinary efforts are presently under-
way to create a conceptual framework that is useful both in theory and in practice
for a broad suite of cultural ES.
Institutional Design
However ES are measured, there is a need for political and social science research to
design institutions and policy mechanisms that better capture externalities. Efforts
such as national accounts are blossoming now, but it is unclear how they will evolve
and how successful governments will be at incorporating natural capital into
national measures of wealth. There is great work to be done in determining the
merits and limitations of alternative policy and finance mechanisms, in different
economic, governance, and other social contexts (e.g., [ 5 , 46 , 58 , 59 ]). There is also
great work to be done in developing institutions that achieve representation and
participation by stakeholders as part of adaptive governance systems (e.g., [ 13 , 55 ]).