Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Nowadays drillers are usually very happy to strike gas. Gas may outlast
oil (though not coal). And, in contrast to oil, new gas finds still exceed pro-
duction (as shown by the two tables of top gas consumers and producers
here), though latterly by smaller margins than in the great decades of dis-
covery in the 1960s and 1970s. As with oil, really big finds are fewer these
days, and the smaller the field the quicker the rate of decline. In 2009, the
International Energy Agency estimated that by 2030 the world would lose
half its current gas production - the equivalent of two Russias - simply
due to the pace of decline.
Top six gas consumers in 2008 (in billions of cubic metres)
United States
657.2
Russia
420.2
Iran
117.6
United Kingdom
93.9
Japan
93.7
China
80.7
World consumption*
3,018.7
*Production is slightly larger than consumption due to stock changes at storage and
liquefaction plants.
Source:
BP Statistical Review
Peak gas?
Despite these declines, we seem to be far from approaching peak gas.
The global recession of 2008-09 temporarily weakened gas demand and
prices. which were also weakened by the increase in US output of uncon-
ventional gas (see box). In addition, there is always the possibility of fur-
ther reducing gas flaring - cutting down on gas wastage.
The best guess from the IEA is that we have only produced 13 percent of
total conventional gas reserves, compared to at least 33 percent of conven-
tional oil. Total remaining conventional gas reserves were reckoned to be
around 405 trillion cubic metres at the end of 2008. The portion of these
reserves that can be extracted is also higher than for oil, with minimum
recovery rates of thirty percent and maximum rates approaching one
hundred percent.
