Chemistry Reference
In-Depth Information
mulled over through a few idea development sessions, it should be possible to sketch a flow
sheet and set up a simple mass and energy balance. Next some consideration will have to be
paid to equipment sizes. For experienced engineers this would not be all that difficult. A lot
of information would be lacking, but by making intelligent assumptions through analogies
or on the basis of past experience it is possible to get there. Each assumption made becomes
a research target for any next step. All assumptions should be on the optimistic side - that is
important. If the analysis eventually shows that the idea is hopeless in spite of positive
assumptions being made from A to Z, the idea should be discarded or taken back to the
drawing board.
Radical assumptions in the best tradition of PI may be made. A PI based approach
should be used to identify further cost effective solutions. The only word of warning here
is that if a proposal is dependent on 10 radical ideas to succeed, the probability of
carrying it off may be low. There would certainly an uphill struggle to convince
investors, but if there is enough driving force, it is not impossible.
13.4 Business Risk and Ideas
There is no denying that introducing radical new technology involves some form of risk.
However, history is full of cases where risk has been managed and the industry in question has
gone on to new strengths. Risk taking is necessary in any business as no situation remains in a
status quo. Change is constantly occurring. Those who do not manage change will disappear
over time. Development will at some point meet a rate of diminishing returns, and this iswhere
risk aversion really sets in. Unfortunately, there comes a time when nature limits further
progress. At that point, completely new roads must be laid out, and visionary leadership is
needed to take business to the next step change level. Engineers must respond to this.
If a company is to survive in a regime of changing technology, there has to be risk
management. There are many forms this can take and many ways it can be organized. In the
context of technology development, this essentially means carrying out the right tests and
making sure there are highly qualified people available to specify them - and to foresee any
stumbling blocks. The detailed engineering carried out based on a newly developed
technology represents a different challenge to 'repeats'. More time should be allowed, and
there may be questions which merit further visits to the laboratory. Engineering is the next
step in the development process.
At some stage, however, there is a need to sit back and conclude that the technical work
is complete, and business evaluation is needed. At this stage the risks involved should be
clearly defined. If they are a bit on the 'woolly' side, this should be clearly stated! The
questions to be answered are:
Is the perceived risk justified? Could it be reduced?
What is the upside?
What is the downside?
If the conclusion is negative, it may be asked whether more work could rectify the situation.
The stumbling points should be well described.
Pursuing radical ideas in an industrial environment requires a commitment from the top.
Research efforts must be directed. It must be realized that most of the ideas created will be
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