Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
they are likely to benefit more than the national average from export
expanson of labour-ntensve agrcultural products. They may also ncur
relatvely small adjustment costs from the mport surge of land-ntensve
products as they also have comparatve advantage n these actvtes.
The payoff for the group of six provinces and regions (Jiangsu, Hunan,
Sichuan, Hunan, Chongqing and Guizhou) located in the south-west quadrant
may be the most unfavourable as they lack comparatve advantage n both
labour-intensive and land-intensive agricultural products. As a result, they
are lkely to shoulder relatvely large adjustment costs arsng from the
external shocks of mport growth for land-ntensve agrcultural products
and obtain a relatively smaller share of benefits from expansion in exports
of labour-ntensve agrcultural products.
The seven provnces and muncpaltes drectly under admnstraton of
the Central Government located n the north-west quadrant are lkely to
enjoy relatively large benefits from the export expansion of labour-intensive
products. But they are also lkely to face relatvely large adjustment costs
from the mport growth of agrcultural products that are land ntensve n
nature. Finally, there are 11 provinces and regions (Xinjiang, Heilongjiang,
Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Anhui, Yunnan, Gansu
and Henan) located in the south-east quadrant for which the benefits and
costs are likely to be relatively small (Figure 3.5).
The coastal regions are likely to be the major beneficiaries from export
expanson of labour-ntensve products whle the vast nland provnces
and regions will have relatively small benefits. On the other hand, coastal
regons may experence a relatvely large share of the adjustment costs
from the mport growth whle nland provnces and regons may experence
smaller external shocks. It appears, therefore, that there could be a
negative correlation between the benefits and costs across the broadly
defined regions that is, the eastern, the middle and western regions.
Regonal pattern of the agrcultural mpact: scenaro two
In scenaro two t s assumed that mports wll substtute for domestc
producton n proporton to the domestc share of producton across
provinces and regions. Under this assumption, domestic adjustment costs
resultng from the ncreasng mports wll have to be manly shouldered
