Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Conclusions
This chapter assesses the economic effects of the ACFTA in its two stages
up to 2010. The analyss s based on an mproved recursve GTAP model.
The data are based on Version 6 of the GTAP database for 2001, together
wth data derved from other sources. There are two dstngushng
characteristics of this study. The first is that, in addition to the commitments
in the ACFTA, the study incorporates trade liberalisation in China (China's
Table 13.13 Changes in the new ASEAN members in supply prices and
output after the implementation of the ACFTA, up to 2010
Contrbuton to output by
Supply
Output
Tarff
Tarff
Tarff
prce
reductons
reductons
reductons
from EHP in agriculture in industry
Rice
0.274
0.054
0.018
-0.010
0.046
Wheat
0.221
-0.030
0.386
-0.074
-0.342
Coarse grain
0.225
-0.023
0.024
0.040
-0.087
Vegetables and fruits
0.168
-0.072
-0.066
-0.003
-0.003
Oil seeds
0.300
0.091
0.052
0.107
-0.068
Sugar
0.365
0.394
0.007
0.364
0.023
Cotton
0.693
0.676
0.046
0.989
-0.359
Vegetable oil
0.307
3.560
0.005
3.264
0.291
Other crops
0.036
-0.275
-0.083
-0.039
-0.153
Cattle and mutton
0.271
-0.030
0.003
-0.008
-0.024
Pork and poultry
0.242
-0.022
-0.030
-0.002
0.010
Milk
0.233
-0.319
-0.012
-0.069
-0.238
Fish
0.279
0.048
-0.001
0.035
0.014
Processed food
0.262
0.073
0.016
0.139
-0.082
Natural resources
0.222
-0.063
0.000
-0.035
-0.029
Textiles and apparel
0.234
-0.595
0.021
-0.094
-0.521
Natural industry
0.250
1.019
0.012
-0.031
1.038
Metal and machinery
0.255
-0.537
0.001
-0.067
-0.472
Transportation
0.281
-0.130
0.000
-0.014
-0.116
Electronics
0.249
0.541
0.001
-0.043
0.584
Manufactures
0.245
0.002
0.030
-0.032
0.004
Services
0.294
-0.015
0.000
-0.002
-0.013
Source:
Results of authors' smulaton.
