Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
There are trade dverson effects for non-member regons. Ths can
be seen more clearly in Table 13.5, which shows the changes in bilateral
trade flows associated with the EHP. China's exports to ASEAN increase
by US$317 million but its exports to other regions fall by US$41 million; as
a result, China's total exports increase by US$276 million. China's imports
increase by US$297 million, of which those from ASEAN increase by US$592
mllon; but Chna's mports from other regons declne by US$296 mllon.
The changes in exports and imports with ASEAN also reflect the importance
of China-ASEAN trade. The exports of other regions to China and ASEAN+5
decline by US$350 million. Although exports from other regions to new
ASEAN member countries increase only marginally (by US$4 million), the
total exports of other regons fall by US$169 mllon.
In general, the output prices of commodities in ACFTA signatory
countres rse because of the ncreasng cost of producton. As the standard
GTAP model assumes perfect competition in markets, firms have zero
profits and the output price is equal to the production cost. Therefore, the
rsng prces of prmary nput factors pull up the output prces. As shown
in Table 13.6, prices increase in all the participant countries; however, in
China, output prices for processed food, fish, textiles and apparel decline
margnally. Ths s manly because the tarff reductons lower the mport
prices of fruits and vegetables, pork and poultry products, which are the
Table 13.3 The macro impacts of the EHP
Chna
Old ASEAN
New ASEAN
Other regons
EV (US$ million)
13.65
56.55
25.80
-77.03
EV/GNP (%)
0.001
0.012
0.021
0.000
GDP (%)
0.000
0.031
0.079
-0.002
GDP price (%)
-0.001
0.030
0.078
-0.002
Price of land (%)
0.029
0.706
1.570
-0.030
Wages of unskilled labour (%)
0.012
0.040
0.063
-0.002
Wages of skilled labour (%)
0.011
0.007
0.021
-0.001
Price of capital (%)
0.010
0.009
0.019
-0.001
Note:
EV - Equivalent variation
Source:
Results of author's smulaton.
