Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Table A10.6 Comparng smulated trade reform-drven labour relocaton demand wth hstorcal experence
a
Agriculture
Minerals
Manufacturing Electricity,
Construction
Transport
Other
and ishing
gas and water and dwellings
services
services, incl
inance &
communcaton
Oficial record of historical annual employment changes, per cent
1978-2001
Maximum +ve (year)
3.6 (1982)
4.8 (1990)
8.2 (1986)
11.6 (1993)
28.6 (1984)
19.9 (1984)
16.8 (1984)
Maximum .ve (year)
-2.4 (1993) -16.9 (1998) -13.5 (1998)
-0.4 (2000)
-3.3 (1989)
-3.0 (1998)
-
Average
b
0.68
-0.50
1.92
4.44
6.74
4.54
5.95
1990--2001
Maximum +ve (year)
2.5 (1991)
3.8 (1993)
3.4 (1994)
11.6 (1993)
14.8 (1993)
10.4 (1994)
10.9 (1994)
Maximum .ve (year)
-2.4 (1993) -16.9 (1998) -13.5 (1998)
-0.4 (2000)
-3.3 (1998)
-3.0 (1998)
-
Average
b
-0.3
-3.84
-0.48
3.81
4.02
2.47
5.13
Simulated WTO accession effects: annual employment changes, per cent
Restrctve macro polcy
c
Skilled workers
0.12
-0.13
0.02
-0.03
-0.9
0.21
-0.02
Production workers
-0.33
-0.37
0.02
0.01
-2.75
0.52
-0.14
Expansonary macro polcy
d
Skilled workers
0.33
0.47
0.13
0.57
0.36
0.48
0.51
Production workers
0.62
1.46
1.12
1.92
1.90
2.18
2.07
Expansionary policy + ancillary shocks
e
Skilled workers
0.34
1.02
0.17
0.88
1.53
0.53
1.23
Production workers
0.98
3.21
2.11
3.26
6.61
3.42
1.49
