Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Table A10.5 Smulated short-run effects of a unlateral lberalsaton of Chna's 2001 trade polcy regme: by
macroeconomc polcy regme
a
Change n:
No productvty and servces reform effects
Wth productvty and servce reform effects
Captal
No captal
No captal
Captal
No captal
No captal
controls,
controls,
controls,
controls,
controls,
controls,
monetary
monetary
monetary
monetary
monetary
monetary
policy
policy
policy
policy
policy
policy
targets E
b
targets E
targets P
Y
targets E
b
targets E
targets P
Y
Nominal exch rate (US$/•),
E
i
0.00
0.00
-1.36
0.00
0.00
-1.07
Domestic CPI,
b
P
C
-1.73
-0.79
0.34
-2.12
-0.68
0.20
Domestic GDP delator,
P
Y
-2.15
-1.03
0.00
-2.51
-0.80
0.00
Price of capital goods,
P
I
-1.80
-0.89
0.18
-1.81
-0.42
0.42
Terms of trade
-1.41
-0.85
-1.06
-1.48
-0.62
-0.79
Real effective exchange rate,
e
i
R
-2.30
-1.19
-1.53
-2.70
-1.02
-1.29
Real exchange rate vs USA,
e
ij
R
-2.16
-1.03
-1.37
-2.53
-0.80
-1.07
Global interest rate,
r
w
-0.04
0.08
0.06
-0.01
0.17
0.16
Interest premium factor,
(1+π)
3.58
0.00
0.00
5.54
0.00
0.00
Home interest rate,
r
3.54
0.08
0.06
5.53
0.17
0.16
Exp long-run capital return,
r
e
c
1.30
1.30
1.30
4.98
4.98
4.98
Short run capital return,
r
c
0.83
1.99
2.44
-0.57
1.19
1.54
Real domestic investment,
I
-1.76
0.98
0.99
-0.43
3.78
3.79
Balance of trade,
X-M
, US$m
0.00
-9,520
-8,250
0.00
-14,600
-13,600
Real gross sectoral output
Rice
-0.43
-0.14
0.01
-0.39
0.04
0.16
Beverages
0.47
0.49
0.66
0.52
0.55
0.68
Other crops
-0.30
0.02
0.20
-0.26
0.23
0.38
Livestock
-0.10
0.49
0.67
-0.04
0.86
1.00
