Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Table A10.3 Simulated long-run effects of a unilateral liberalisation of
Chna's 2001 trade polcy regme
a
Change n:
No ancllary effects
Wth ancllary effects
on productvty or
on productvty and
servces captal
servces captal
b
Terms of trade (per cent)
-1.25
-1.52
R
Real effective exchange rate, e
(per cent)
-1.98
-2.56
R
Real exchange rate against USA, e
j
(per cent)
-1.81
-2.37
Global interest rate, r
w
(per cent)
0.10
0.05
Investment premium factor, (1+π) (per cent)
0.00
0.00
Home interest rate, r (per cent)
0.10
0.05
Return on installed capital, r
c
(per cent)
c
1.30
4.98
Real domestic investment, I (per cent)
0.95
3.85
Balance of trade, X-M = - KA = -(I-S
D
) (US$ bn)
-10.87
-56.51
Real gross sectoral output (per cent)
Rice
-3.29
-2.54
Beverage
2.77
3.33
Other crops
-1.25
-0.36
Livestock
0.03
1.32
Food
-5.41
-4.32
Fish
-0.17
0.35
Minerals
0.88
2.38
Energy
0.78
0.95
Lght manufacturng
1.49
2.26
Heavy manufacturing
1.08
4.60
Transport
1.44
2.87
Infrastructure services
0.34
2.25
Construction and dwellings
0.73
3.46
Other servces
0.76
4.96
Real GDP, Y
0.41
3.31
Unsklled wage and employment (per cent)
Nominal (unskilled) wage, W
-0.42
1.85
Production real wage, w=W/P
Y
1.51
4.53
Employment, L
D
0.00
0.00
Unit factor rewards CPI deflated (per cent)
Land
-2.65
-1.39
Unskilled labour (those employed)
1.27
4.08
Skilled labour
1.38
4.22
Physcal captal
1.24
4.04
Natural resources
1.20
2.65
Notes:
a
All results in this table are based on the adoption of fiscal policy 1: government
spendng s held constant as a share of GDP and the revenue lost from tarff reform s
not made up in other taxes, so the fiscal deficit expands. Key exogenous variables are
hghlghted as per the long-run closure dscussed n the text.
b
For these additional shocks, see Table A10.4.
Source:
Model simulations described in the text.
