Trade reform, macroeconomic policy and sectoral labour movement in China - Agriculture and Food Security in China - page 292

Table A10.2 Ancllary effects of WTO trade reforms a

Long-run total factor Short-run effect of reduced

productvty rses assocated wth servces protecton on captal

reduced protection, a per cent accumulation in financial and

communications, c per cent/year

Rce 1.0

Beverage 1.0

Other crops 1.0

Lvestock 1.0

Food 2.0

Fish 0

Minerals 0

Energy 0

Lght manufacturng 1.5

Heavy manufacturing 3.0

Transport servces 1.0

Infrastructural servces
(electricity, gas, water) 1.0

Constructon and dwellngs 2.0

Other (including financial
and communcatons) 5.0 2.0

Notes: a These are supplementary exogenous shocks applied, where indicated, along with
the tariff reductions. They incorporate the findings of other research, particularly on the
effects of servces reform.
b Estimates based on the results from research by Chand et al. (1998), Chand (1999) and
Stoeckel et al. (1999).
c Estimated one year effect, based on the results from research by Dee and Hanslow
(2000) and Verikios and Zhang (2001).
Sources : Chand, S., 1999. 'Trade liberalisation and productivity growth: time-series
evdence from Australan manufacturng' , The Economic Record , 75(228):28-36; Chand,
S., McCalman. P. and Gretton, P., 1998. 'Trade liberalisation and manufacturing
industry productivity growth', Paper in Productivity Commission and Australian National
University, Microeconomic Reform and Productivity Growth, Workshop Proceedings,
AusInfo, Canberra:239-281; Stoeckel, A., Tang, K.K., and McKibbin, W., 1999. 'The gains
from trade liberalisation with endogenous productivity and risk premium effects',
Techncal Paper prepared for semnar: Reasons versus Emoton: Requrements for a
Successful WTO Round, Seattle, 2 December 1999; Dee, P. and Hanslow, K., 2000.
Multilateral liberalisation of services trade , Productivity Commission of Australia, March;
Verikios, G. and Zhang, X., 2001. 'The economic effects of removing barriers to trade
in telecommunications and financial services', Paper presented at the Fourth Annual
Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Purdue University, West Lafayette, 27-29 June.