Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Table A9.8 Simulated short-run effects of a unilateral liberalisation of China's 2001 trade policy regime:
by monetary polcy
a
Change n:
Retanng captal
Removng captal
Retanng captal
Removng captal
controls, monetary controls, monetary
controls, monetary
controls, monetary
polcy targets
E
b
polcy targets
E
polcy targets
P
C
polcy targets
P
C
Nominal exchange rate (US$/•),
E
i
0.00
0.00
-1.89
-0.96
Domestic CPI,
P
C
-1.74
-0.79
0.00
0.00
Domestic GDP delator,
P
Y
-2.15
-1.03
-0.53
-0.31
Nominal Money supply,
M
S
-2.54
-0.83
-0.62
-0.01
Import price index
-0.10
0.06
1.81
1.01
Price of capital goods,
P
K
-1.80
-0.89
-0.16
-0.14
Terms of trade
-1.41
-0.85
-1.60
-1.00
Balance of trade,
X-M = - KA = -(I-S
D
)
,
US$ bn
0.00
-9.50
0.00
-8.60
Real effective exchange rate,
e
i
R
-2.30
-1.19
-2.56
-1.43
Real exchange rate against USA,
e
ij
R
-2.17
-1.03
-2.42
-1.27
Global interest rate,
r
w
-0.04
0.08
-0.04
0.07
Investment premium factor,
(1+π)
3.58
0.00
2.92
0.00
Home interest rate,
r
3.55
0.08
2.88
0.07
Expected long-run return on capital,
r
e
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.30
Current return on installed capital,
r
c
0.82
1.99
1.66
2.31
Real domestic investment,
I
-1.76
0.98
-1.24
0.98
Nominal domestic investment
-4.24
0.47
-1.91
1.25
Real consumption,
C
-1.71
0.12
0.36
1.01
Real private savings,
S
P
-0.21
1.52
2.11
2.54
Gov't spendng as per cent of GDP (real)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Power of income tax,
1+τ
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Fiscal deicit, per cent change
16.01
18.61
18.33
19.56
Fiscal deicit, change in US$ bn
12.10
14.00
13.80
14.00
Real gross sectoral output
