Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
even the prces of home-produced food products would ncrease by at
least 10 per cent. The key consequence of political significance would be a
reducton n nterdependence wth the global economy. Ths cuts two ways.
Reduced relance on food mports means curtalng the prncpal source of
China's overall economic growth since the 1980s: access to foreign markets
for its labour-intensive goods. Curtailed exports reduce its capital returns,
thereby cutting incentives for investment and, ultimately, the growth rate
of ts economy.
Table 1.1
Food self-sufficiency in China, 2001-10 (per cent)
Commodty
2001
2010
Rce
100
100
Beverages
99
91
Other crops
94
89
Lvestock
99
95
Processed food
88
83
Fish
99
99
Minerals
95
94
Energy
80
80
Source:
Authors' smulatons.
Table 1.2
Changes in tariffs required for food self-sufficiency by 2010
(per cent)
Commodtes
Extra protecton to hold self-
Extra protecton to acheve
sufficiency rates at 2001 levels
full self-sufficiency
Rce
0.0
0.0
Beverages
35.4
50.6
Other crops
19.2
72.7
Livestock
39.2
78.7
Processed food
11.1
67.3
Fish
16.1
31.9
Source:
Authors' smulatons. The changes n protecton are shown as proportonal
changes to nominal protection coefficients.
