Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
achieve self-sufficiency by 2010 and what would be the contractionary and
dstrbutonal effects of ths protecton? Consstent wth Yang and Tyers
(1989) our projections to 2010 show substantial declines in Chinese food
self-sufficiency, particularly for livestock products and feed grains, so that
substantal ncreases n protecton are needed to mantan the 2001 levels.
To achieve self-sufficiency in all agricultural products by 2010 considerable
further protection would be required. Moreover, this protection would
be both contractionary and redistributive, and it would retard growth in
other sectors. The strength of the results notwithstanding, a sensitivity
analyss shows they rest qute heavly on the precson wth whch some
parameters are measured, particularly the income elasticity of demand
for lvestock products.
Modelling the Chinese and world economies, 2001-2010
The model is a modified version of that introduced by Hertel (1997), which
s global n scope. It offers the followng useful propertes
a captal goods sector n each regon to servce nvestment
explicit savings in each region, combined with open regional capital
accounts that permit savings in one region to finance investment in
others
multiple trading regions, goods and primary factors
product dfferentaton by country of orgn
emprcally based dfferences n tastes and technology across
regons
non-homothetc preferences
explicit transportation costs and indirect taxes on trade, production
and consumpton.
All individual goods and services entering final and intermediate demand
are constant elastcty of substtuton (CES) blends of home products and
imports. Government spending is also such a composite, though its mix of
goods, as between different product groups and between home products
and imports, differs from that embodied in private consumption. In turn,
imports are CES composites of the products of all regions, the contents of
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