Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
respectively. The welfare improvement, measured by the equivalent
variation (EV), amounts to 58.2 billion yuan.
Second, the tariff reductions lead to lower prices of imports, which,
in turn, result in lower overall prices. The consumer price index (CPI) and
GDP deflator decline by 2.2 and 1.8 per cent, respectively. Because of the
cheaper domestic prices, the terms of trade decline by 0.4 per cent.
Third, both imports and exports increase after the tariff cut by 19.0 and
11.1 per cent, respectively. As imports increase more than the exports, the
trade balance declines by about 34 billion yuan.
Fourth, the impacts of WTO accession are not evenly distributed. Crops,
food processing, motor vehicle and parts, and the machinery sectors are
Table 7.6
Macroeconomic impact of WTO accession
Eastern
Central
Western
Natonal
Real GDP (per cent)
0.703
-0.114
0.275
0.436
Real consumption (per cent)
1.694
0.19
0.218
1.021
Utility (per cent)
1.093
0.317
0.402
0.790
EV (billion yuan)
51.397
3.627
3.179
58.203
CPI (per cent)
-2.118
-2.019
-2.477
-2.157
GDP deflator (per cent)
-1.673
-1.783
-2.500
-1.831
Changes in trade balance (billion yuan)
-33.955
Terms of trade (per cent)
-0.416
Imports (per cent)
19.042
Exports (per cent)
11.096
Sectoral output
Crops
-0.674
-0.294
-0.399
-0.490
Other agriculture
0.637
0.257
0.466
0.487
Mining
-1.484
1.270
2.943
0.160
Food processing
-5.679
-1.751
-5.332
-4.404
Light industry
7.188
-0.217
1.129
5.341
Chemicals
-1.922
-0.931
-0.680
-1.556
Motor vehicles and parts
-17.612
-14.658
-10.814
-16.035
Machinery
-3.590
-0.865
0.641
-2.516
Electronic and electrics
6.549
-0.736
3.736
5.737
Construction
0.426
1.033
1.162
0.687
Service
0.774
-0.159
0.132
0.481
Source:
Author's CERD smulaton
