Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 6.8
Macroeconomic effects of WTO tariff cuts: with transfer
payments
Indcators
No control on trade balance
No change n trade balance
Eastern Central Western Natonal Eastern Central Western Natonal
Real GDP (%)
0.88
-0.07
0.28
0.55
0.85
-0.07
0.27
0.54
GDP deflator (%)
-1.93
-1.98
-2.72 -2.07
3.22
2.99
2.26
3.01
CPI (%)
Rural households
-2.67
-2.48 -3.10
-2.69
2.32
2.43
1.82
2.26
Urban households
-2.57
-2.25 -2.75 -2.53
2.44
2.75
2.25
2.48
Government
-0.70
-1.27
-1.28 -0.95
4.59
3.92
3.93
4.31
Regional average
-2.62
-2.39 -2.94 -2.61
2.38
2.56
2.02
2.36
Total utility (%)
Rural households
0.69
0.22
0.17
0.47
0.38
0.02
0.02
0.21
Urban households
1.84
1.23
1.42
1.64
1.30
0.76
1.11
1.16
Government
0.04
-1.38
-1.89 -0.49
0.95
-1.45
-1.97
0.10
Regional average
1.11
0.40
0.58
0.85
0.91
0.11
0.36
0.62
Equvalent varaton (bllon yuan)
Rural households
12.15
2.35
0.82 15.33
6.62
0.21
0.10
6.93
Urban households
38.50
8.33 10.24 57.07
27.11
5.16
8.01 40.28
Government
0.47
-4.86 -4.91
-9.31
10.73
-5.10
-5.10
0.52
Regional sum
51.12
5.82
6.15 63.09
44.45
0.26
3.01 47.72
Savings (nominal, %)
Rural households
-1.47
-2.01 -2.62
-1.03
3.49
2.89
2.21
4.13
Urban households
-0.16
-0.97 -0.95
-1.60
5.17
4.24
4.29
3.43
Government
-3.43
-2.68 -3.16
-1.33
1.56
2.37
1.87
3.82
Regional average
-1.75
-0.46 -3.39
-1.20
3.18
4.83
1.60
3.93
Nominal exchange rate
-
5.35
Change in trade balance (billion yuan)
-41.79
-
Terms of trade (%)
-0.46
-0.47
Source: Author's CERD smulaton.
