Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
expect that the real situation lies somewhere between the two closures,
although perhaps closer to the former.
Smulaton results of the tarff cut can be found n Tables 6.1 and 6.2 and
Tables A6.3 to A6.5. Table 6.1 reports the macroeconomic effects of tariff cuts
under different closures, and Table 6.2 reports the impact of tariff cuts on
regional output, imports and exports of aggregated commodities or sectors.
The disaggregated sectoral results are reported in Tables A6.3 to A6.5.
Table 6.1
Macroeconomic effects of tariff cuts
Indcatons
No control on trade balance
No change n trade balance
Eastern Central Western Natonal Eastern Central Western Natonal
Real GDP(%)
0.87 -0.06
0.33
0.56
0.85 -0.07
0.33
0.54
GDP deflator(%)
-1.90 -2.03 -2.79 -2.07
3.35
3.04
2.28
3.11
CPI (%)
Rural households
-2.66 -2.50 -3.11 -2.70
2.42
2.51
1.90
2.35
Urban households
-2.56 -2.27 -2.77 -2.53
2.55
2.82
2.33
2.57
Government
-0.67 -1.30 -1.33 -0.95
4.72
3.98
3.97
4.40
Regional average
-2.61 -2.40 -2.95 -2.62
2.48
2.64
2.10
2.45
Total utility (%)
Rural households
0.67
0.22
0.17
0.46
0.35
0.01
0.02
0.20
Urban households
1.85
1.16
1.36
1.62
1.30
0.69
1.05
1.13
Government
0.49 -1.94 -2.47 -0.37
1.41
-2.01
-2.54
0.23
Regional average
1.19
0.30
0.48
0.86
0.98
0.02
0.25
0.63
Equvalent varaton (bllon yuan)
Rural households
11.86
2.32
0.83 15.01
6.23
0.13
0.1
6.46
Urban households
38.68
7.89
9.79 56.35
27.08
4.66
7.53 39.26
Government
5.57 -6.84 -6.40 -7.67
15.97
-7.07
-6.58
2.32
Regional sum
56.11
3.36
4.22 63.69
49.28 -2.28
1.04 48.04
Savings (nominal, per cent)
Rural households
-1.47 -2.03 -2.64 -1.76
3.58
2.97
2.28
3.26
Urban households
-0.14 -1.07 -1.04 -0.48
5.29
4.25
4.29
4.91
Government
-3.45 -3.26 -3.78 -3.44
1.63
1.85
1.32
1.64
Regional average
-1.02 -1.66 -1.41 -1.22
4.24
3.47
3.84
4.01
Nomnal exchange rate
-
5.45
Change in trade balance (billion yuan)
-42.55
-
Terms of trade (%)
-0.46
-0.47
Source: Author's CERD smulaton.
