Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 5.8
The direct impact of grain imports
Costs and benefits
Producer losses
Consumer gains
Value (billion yuan)
28.0
24.1
Per cent of GDP
0.31
0.27
Per cent of farmers' ncomes
4.2
Per cent of pure gran farmers' ncomes
9.1
Per cent of all consumers' ncomes
0.52
Per cent of urban consumers' incomes
0.83
Rural employment opportunities
Domestic losses
Foreign gains
'000 persons
9,240
40
Note:
Foreign gains in employment opportunities are calculated using the labour
productvty of the US farmng sector.
Source:
Author's calculatons.
on the economy n the years ahead. Gven that ths stuaton cannot be
avoided, the key issue is how to accelerate the structural adjustment.
Structural adjustment
Adjustment of the agrcultural structure
To deal with the grain import shock, an adjustment that might be made
s to change the proportons of grans accordng to Chna's comparatve
advantage. Rce producton may be expanded to replace other grans. Some
adjustment is already in process. Compared with the year 1995, the total
area sown to grain had fallen by 4.5 per cent by 2000. Of this, the wheat
area was down by 7.6 per cent whereas the rce area was only reduced by
2.5 per cent. Further adjustment can be expected. However, the capacity
for further adjustment is limited because rice normally requires irrigation,
whereas most of China's north areas, which mainly produce wheat, corn,
soybean and other grains and not rice, are dry. Only the north-east
provinces, that is, Liaoning, Jinlin and Heilongjiang, may have the potential
to expand rce producton.
A second way of adjustng s to replace gran wth other agrcultural
products, for example, vegetables, cotton, oil-bearing crops, tea, fruits, etc.
