The impact of WTO accession on China’s agricultural sector - Agriculture and Food Security in China - page 108

labour force in 2010 will be 304 million, a 40 million reduction from the
344 million in year 2000. In this case, and without further reduction in
crop land, the labour intensity in the agricultural sector will fall by 12 per
cent. Ths wll mean only a mnor mprovement n labour productvty and
n per capta farmng ncomes.
More optimistically, if urbanisation can be significantly accelerated, with
the rural-urban migrants doubling from 2001 to 2010, that is, an increase
from 3.0 to 6.0 million per year, the agricultural labour force will be reduced
to 274 mllon by 2010. Labour ntensty n agrculture wll declne by 20 per
cent—still only a minor improvement in labour productivity.

Table 5.1 Rural labour, TVE employment and rural-urban migration,

1980-2010 (million persons)

Year Rural labour Rural labour TVE Rural-urban Agricultural

(statstcs) (adjusted) employment mgraton labour

1980 318 347 30 0 317

1990 473 473 93 14 366

2000 499 519 128 47 344

2010 (assumption I) 530 149 77 304

2010 (assumption 2) 530 149 107 274

Note: Figures in the third column are adjusted from the labour statistics according to the
information from the 1962, 1984 and 1990 national census. See Wang (2000b)
Agricultural labour is calculated as the balance of total rural labour minus TVE
employment minus rural-urban migration.
The number of rural-urban migrants was estimated by the author on the basis of survey
by Ministry of Labour and Social Security and the National Bureau of Statistics (1999).
In the first assumption for 2001-2010, the growth rates assumed for rural labour and TVE
employment are 0.2 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively, and rural-urban migration is
assumed be 3.0 million per year. In the second assumption, rural-urban migration is 6.0
million per year, while the other assumptions remain the same.
Sources: Department of Training and Employment of the Ministry of Labour and Social
Security, PRC, and Rural Social and Economic Survey Team of the National Statistical
Bureau, 1999. The situation of rural labourers' employment and flow in China, 1997-1998,
printed report, Beijing; National Bureau of Statistics, 1999 and 2001. Statistical Yearbook
of China , China Statistics Press, Beijing; Wang, Xiaolu, 200b. 'Sustainability of China's
economic growth and institutional changes', in Wang, Xiaolu and Fan, Gang (eds), The
Sustainability of China's Economic Growth , Economic Science Press, Beijiing; author's
estmatons.