Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
rural industrialisation and continued urbanisation in the past two decades,
the agricultural labour force has increased from 291 million to 334 million
(the author's estimations are 317 million and 344 million for the two years,
respectively). The growth rate of rural labour has decreased significantly
due to the family planning policy and urbanisation, although it still remained
postve at 0.9 per cent n the 1990s.
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The author predcts that the rural
labour force will grow at a low rate of 0.2 per cent per year, to reach a
total of 530 million in 2010.
While the natural growth of rural labour is slowing, rural industrialisation
has also stagnated since the mid 1990s. Total employment in the TVE sector
grew at an annual rate of 12 per cent in the 1980s, but at only 3 per cent
in the 1990s. TVE employment reached its highest level of 135 million in
1996, fell in 1996 and 1997, and slightly recovered to 128 million in 2000.
There seems no reason to believe that employment growth in the TVE
sector wll recover n the medum term. We therefore assume an average
1.5 per cent growth rate of TVE employment from 2001 to 2010, to reach
a total of 149 mllon by 2010.
Rural-urban migration is unlikely to grow faster in the near future, due
to the weaker demand for, and oversupply of, unskilled labour in urban
areas in recent years. In particular, a large number of urban workers in
the state-owned enterprse sector have been lad off (SOE employment
fell by 30 million from 1996 to 2000), and growth of export and domestic
producton has slowed.
After the deduction of those who have been employed by TVEs and
those who migrated to urban areas, nearly all the remaining rural labourers
are n the agrcultural sector. Ths s because they are enttled to a small
parcel of arable land under the current 'household responsibility system',
whch provdes them wth a form of mnmum nsurance. Therefore Chna's
agrcultural sector s n realty an enormous reservor of underemployed
labour.
Table 5.1 shows the growth of the rural labour force, TVE employment
and the estimated rural-urban migration during the 1980s and 1990s, and
the expected growth of these varables n the 2000s. If we assume that
the speed of the net transfer of agrcultural labour to the urban sector
between 2001 and 2010 will be slightly slower than in the 1990s, that is,
3 million per year instead of 3.3 million per year, then the agricultural
