Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
insignificant coefficient estimates in previous regressions. These results
suggest that urbansaton has a long-run mpact on economc growth.
The major dfference n the results of the second verson of the model
is the insignificant effect of urbanisation on economic growth in the less-
developed west region. The effect is significant in the two other regions.
There are two possble reasons for ths result: the effect n the west regon
is insignificant because the achievement of urbanisation in the west has
been relatively low or, contrary to the other regions, the urban economy
in the west provinces has not experienced much restructuring, and is
therefore less market-oriented and less efficient.
In general, the results identify a contribution from urbanisation to
economc growth va productvty changes. A reasonable explanaton for the
hgher productvty growth s mprovement n resource allocaton between
the rural and urban sectors. Ths mples that acceleratng urbansaton
could be an mportant measure to counteract the short-run sde effects of
WTO accession on the agricultural sector, and to reduce the rural-urban
ncome gap.
Table 4.3
Modeling results: urbanisation and economic growth
Version 1'
Version 2
Variable
Coeficient
t-ratio
Coeficient
t-ratio
K
0.3481
(8.891**)
0.3552
(8.931**)
H
0.4315
(5.122**)
0.4261
(5.045**)
D
0.0157
(0.903)
0.0159
(0.911)
Ut-1
0.3753
(3.619**)
U1
0.3560
(2.698**)
U2
0.5525
(2.835**)
U3
0.0097
(0.031)
Constant
-0.0837
(-2.383*)
-0.2119
(-2.265*)
Dependent var.
y
Dependent var.
y
R
2
0.3697
R
2
0.3726
Note:
t ratios with * and ** are significant at the 5 per cent and 1 per cent levels,
respectively. For simplicity, coefficients of provincial dummy variables are not reported
n ths table.
Source:
Estimation results. Original data from National Bureau of Statistics, 1999b, 2001.
Statistical Yearbook of China
, China Statistics Press, Beijing.
