Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
may give rise to in the agricultural sector. The larger share of benefits
from the export expanson of labour-ntensve products s lkely to go to
coastal regons whle the vast nland provnce and regons may have smaller
benefits. As for the adjustment costs resulting from the potential growth
of land-intensive agricultural imports, the regional distribution pattern will
depend upon how extensvely the mported products substtute for domestc
producton. Under the assumpton that the ncreased mports wll manly
substtute for domestc producton n the provnces that lack comparatve
advantage in their production, the larger share of adjustment costs will be
borne by the coastal regons whle nland provnce and regons wll have to
shoulder only a small share. However, under an alternative assumption that
the ncreased mports wll substtute for domestc producton n proporton
to the relative density of current production across provinces, inland and
western provnces wll face the largest adjustment costs.
Finally, WTO accession and agricultural liberalisation may have significant
implications for food security in China. As a direct impact of WTO accession,
tarff quota arrangements for the three major gran products are lkely to
increase China's grain imports, with the gradual integration of the Chinese
food economy wth the world food market. As the evolvng pattern of 'food
for food exchange' will likely develop further, the traditional mechanism for
achieving food security based on the concept of grain self-sufficiency needs
to be modified. China needs to assess how best to assure its food security
as domestc and external envronments change. There are nevertheless no
grounds for belevng that the market access commtments made by Chna
n ts WTO accesson package wll harm ts food securty objectve.
Bearng n mnd the complexty of the subject and the ncompleteness
of this research, policy implications of this study are noteworthy.
First, the Chinese government may need to minimise administrative
nterventons n the agrcultural sector that were qute often proposed
and mplemented on the bass of the food securty argument. Agrcultural
polcy adjustments n lne wth domestc regonal comparatve advantage
are necessary for the Chnese agrcultural system to respond better to the
potental export opportuntes for those agrcultural products n whch
Chna enjoys comparatve advantage. Such polcy adjustments wll also
be helpful n shapng the regonal dstrbuton of the adjustment costs of
