Civil Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
interval of PAGER loss estimates, most certainly within the order of mag-
nitude loss-ranges originally desired for the PAGER rapid loss estimation
system.
31.7
Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes
for Response (PAGER) products
and ongoing developments
The primary objective of ongoing development of the PAGER system is to
ingest readily available scientifi c data on specifi c earthquakes and then
create information products that help communicate an earthquake's hazards
and potential impacts to a wide variety of users. Although PAGER provides
fatality and economic impact-based alerts immediately following any sig-
nifi cant earthquake, the media, general public and responders have ever-
increasing expectations for useful, rapid information. This is especially true
given the severe consequences of recent large earthquakes, e.g., the 2008
Wenchuan, China, 2009 L'Aquila, Italy, and 2010 Haiti earthquakes.
The PAGER system is now at the point where re-evaluation of the fun-
damental goals and implementation strategies is in order. Several years of
experience with operations, hazard calculations, loss models, alerting pro-
tocols, analysis of our success rate for recent events, as well as direct interac-
tions with many users allow us to review the current status of PAGER and
set priorities for further research and development.
Responders want, fi rst and foremost, to know whether a given earth-
quake could become a crisis situation, but also to then identify potential
zones of impact, understand the dominant vulnerable constructions and the
scope of potential humanitarian needs (injuries, displaced persons, shelter,
food, etc.).
Clearly, the list of such desirables cannot be completely addressed at a
global scale. Yet, we highlight some of the additional tools and capabilities
that PAGER can offer to aid decision makers and responders. These devel-
opments include automatically identifying vulnerable building types in any
given area, estimating earthquake-induced damage and loss statistics by
building type, and developing visualization aids that help locate areas of
concern for improving post-earthquake response efforts. While such infor-
mation is highly useful and is much desirable, signifi cant improvements are
still necessary to portray such uncertain information in practical and infor-
mative ways.
31.7.1 Portraying population exposure
Given the signifi cance of spatial variability of ground shaking and its
impact on the built environment, it is necessary to highlight the popula-
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