Civil Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
In a given built environment, many factors infl uence estimation of earth-
quake ground shaking characteristics and its consequences in terms of
casualties and losses. Among these, some of the key factors are: (a) basic
earthquake characteristics such as magnitude, location, depth, and source
mechanism of an event, (b) geographic site conditions, (c) spatial variation
of ground shaking intensity, (d) structural characteristics of building and
infrastructure stock exposed, (e) distribution of the population within vul-
nerable buildings, and (f) ability of the affected population to cope with
disasters. The complex interdependencies of these factors within a given
built environment are diffi cult to quantify, making the near real-time
damage and casualty estimation problem challenging. Nonetheless, the
need to quickly gauge the impact of worldwide earthquakes is critical, given
the severe consequences of delays or inaction in the rescue and response
phases of a disaster.
Through this chapter article, we briefl y discuss the state-of-the-art of
rapid earthquake loss estimation systems in the next section. We then intro-
duce the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earth-
quakes for Response (PAGER) system, and subsequently provide detailed
discussion on three loss-modeling approaches that are implemented within
the PAGER system. Towards the end, we provide some early assessments
on PAGER's loss estimates for recent earthquakes, and then discuss some
of the on-going developments and challenges related to rapid loss estima-
tion efforts.
31.2 State-of-the-artofrapidearthquakeloss
estimation systems
Rapid post-earthquake loss estimation systems are designed to address
specifi c needs. For example, the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination
System (GDACS, http://www.gdacs.org) is a multi-hazard disaster monitor
and alert system for earthquakes, tsunamis, fl oods, volcanoes, and tropical
cyclones. The World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk
Reduction (WAPMERR, http://www.wapmerr.org) operates a real-time
QLARM system that provides estimates of the number of fatalities and
injured following signifi cant earthquakes worldwide. Similarly, at the
regional level, the Joint Research Activity JRA-3 of the European Union
project called NERIES (Network of Research Infrastructures for European
Seismology) operates Earthquake Loss Estimation for the Euro-Med
Region (ELER, http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/depremmuh/eski/ELER/
ELER_v3_Manual.pdf) program. ELER aims to estimate earthquake-
induced damage, casualties, shelter, and food requirements following an
earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region. Commercial earthquake
catastrophe models, such as those developed by AIR, RMS, and EQECAT,
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